Gulf crude exports recover while diesel stays scarce at 58% of pre-war flow

Middle Eastern crude shipments returned to roughly pre-war levels by late September 2026 while diesel and gasoline exports from the region were running at 58 percent of pre-war volumes, according to data cited by Enterprise. Gulf diesel and gasoil exports averaged 390,000 barrels per day in August, about a quarter of pre-war levels, the same source reported.

G7 emergency release targets diesel shortage#

The G7 announced a plan to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel into the market over four months, largely by accelerating the 400 million barrel emergency programme agreed in March, of which 325 million barrels have been released, the International Energy Agency stated. Country allocations, the product mix and delivery arrangements are still being worked out. The announcement pushed the ICE gasoil crack down to about 70 dollars per barrel from as high as 85 dollars per barrel in the middle of the previous week, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a note on 7 October 2026.

Global inventories fell 507 million barrels since February#

Global observed oil inventories fell by 507 million barrels between the start of the war and the end of August 2026, including 95 million barrels in August alone, according to the International Energy Agency. Shrinking stocks and constraints in the global refining system are increasing the risk of additional supply tightening, the agency stated. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that the West has almost used up its cushion, with months of disruption eating through the inventories markets can readily draw on, Bloomberg reported.

European refiners operating near full capacity with stocks below historical levels#

European refiners were operating close to full capacity in late September, the European Commission reported. Stocks held at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub sit below the five-year average, though recent weeks have seen those levels hold steady. European supplies remain stable despite the global shortage keeping diesel and jet fuel prices elevated, the Commission stated. Combined Gulf and Russian diesel exports were 1.6 million barrels per day below February levels, with disruptions at Russian refineries adding to the shortfall, Enterprise reported.

US East Coast distillate stocks 32 percent below seasonal average#

Distillate stocks on the US East Coast stood 32 percent below the five-year seasonal average in September, the US Energy Information Administration reported. The agency projects those stocks will remain 20 to 30 percent below historical norms throughout the winter months, a period when the region increases its reliance on imported heating oil and diesel. Imports typically supply approximately 15 percent of East Coast distillate demand between December and February. The US reached an agreement with Russia to bring more than 300,000 tons of Russian diesel into US and global markets immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and one million tons after that, Reuters reported on an unspecified date.