Maersk raises 2026 guidance to $8–8.5bn EBIT on congestion-driven rates

A.P. Moller-Maersk raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance for the third time, lifting underlying EBIT expectations to $8 billion to $8.5 billion from a prior range of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, and EBITDA to $14 billion to $14.5 billion from $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion. The upgrade follows a third quarter in which group revenue rose 27 percent year on year to $18.1 billion, driven by higher freight rates that more than offset a slight decline in transported volumes. The Danish shipping and logistics group reported EBITDA of $4.7 billion, up from $2.7 billion a year earlier, and EBIT of $3.3 billion, up from $1.3 billion, according to a statement published 5 November 2026.

Ocean division posts $2.6bn EBIT as rates climb 46 percent#

Maersk's Ocean Services division accounted for $12.6 billion of third-quarter revenue, an increase of 37 percent on the same period in 2025, and reported EBIT of $2.6 billion compared with $567 million a year earlier. Average loaded freight rates increased 46 percent year on year to $3,287 per 40-foot container, while loaded volumes declined 0.8 percent to 3.37 million forty-foot equivalent units, which the company attributed to severe weather in Asia and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel utilisation averaged 96 percent, with the carrier stating that demand exceeded available space on certain routes. Bunker prices increased 49 percent to $798 per fuel-oil-equivalent metric ton, costs the company said were recovered through surcharges and spot rates.

Port congestion and typhoons tighten effective capacity#

Global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours on 25 August 2026, the highest level since January 2023, as severe typhoon activity across Asia disrupted port operations and tightened effective vessel capacity. Maersk stated that global container demand grew between 2 percent and 4 percent year on year during the quarter, supported by consumer spending and investment in electrification, energy and AI infrastructure. Chief executive Vincent Clerc said rates were over 10 percent higher than when the company announced second-quarter results in August, and over 120 percent higher than at the start of 2026. The carrier noted that its fleet was operating at full capacity, with higher operating costs from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread network congestion.

Logistics and Terminals divisions record double-digit revenue growth#

Logistics & Services recorded revenue of $4.5 billion, up 13 percent from $4 billion a year earlier, with solid growth in airfreight and project logistics, and an EBIT margin that improved to 5.8 percent from 5.5 percent. Terminals generated revenue of $1.5 billion, up 4.9 percent from $1.4 billion, driven by a 2.6 percent increase in volume, improved rates, higher storage revenue and a favourable cargo mix, with Africa and Europe recording volume growth of 14 percent and 6.7 percent respectively. Utilisation at Terminals eased to 85 percent from 90 percent, while the adjusted EBIT margin rose to 32.5 percent from 32 percent. Maersk stated it expects an overall 4 percent volume rise for the full year 2026.

Guidance upgrade follows earlier August revision#

The November guidance revision follows an earlier upgrade in August 2026, when stronger second-quarter performance prompted Maersk to raise its earnings expectations after Ocean EBIT reached $935 million in the second quarter, compared with a $192 million loss in the first quarter. Average loaded freight rates increased 22 percent year on year in the second quarter and volumes grew 4.1 percent. Maersk shares fell as much as 11.6 percent on 5 November 2026 in Copenhagen trading, the largest decline since April 2025, as the upgraded guidance range came below the average analyst estimate of $8.66 billion for underlying EBIT compiled by Bloomberg, and third-quarter EBIT of $3.27 billion missed the $3.61 billion estimate.