Middle East oil exports reach 12.8 million bpd in September recovery

Middle East oil exports reached 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since February, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Reuters and other sources. Saudi Arabia restored flows through its East-West pipeline to at least 3.5 million barrels per day, approximately half of the pipeline's total capacity, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes reached nearly 80 percent of prewar levels last week, Kpler data showed.

Saudi Arabia leads export recovery#

Saudi Arabia exported crude at a daily rate of 5.4 million barrels in September, with 3.6 million barrels per day flowing from the Ras Tanura port on the Persian Gulf, according to Kpler. The kingdom redirected oil flows from west to east, loading crude on tankers in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfer operations. Saudi Aramco notified customers of its October loading schedule, while shipping data showed nearly 10 million barrels of crude being loaded at Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz, Reuters reported. The September export rate matches Saudi Arabia's daily average for 2025, Kpler data indicated.

Hormuz transit volumes remain below prewar levels#

Gulf producers collectively exported 13.2 million barrels per day on September 25, Kpler reported. The figure represents an improvement from earlier in the year but remains below the average daily flow rate of approximately 17 million barrels before the conflict began. Tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz dropped below 10 vessels last week, down from a 10-day moving average of 18, according to tanker tracking data. Some vessels are operating in dark mode to avoid detection, which is not reflected in official counts.

Alternative routing methods add cost and complexity#

Ship-to-ship transfers and pipeline diversions are less efficient and more costly than normal operations, according to Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade. The East-West pipeline provides an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, connecting Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals. Crude loadings resumed at Yanbu after the pipeline restart, with flows reaching at least half of the pipeline's 7 million barrel per day capacity. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that traders are pricing in a lengthier period of disruption despite increased flows from the Gulf.

Oil prices rise on supply uncertainty#

Brent crude futures for November rose $1.71, or 1.6 percent, to $106.99 per barrel on September 30, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.40, or 1.5 percent, to $94.00 per barrel, according to market data. Both benchmarks closed nearly $1 per barrel higher on September 29. UOB analysts stated in a client note that the dominant risk remains implications for energy prices and inflation expectations. Iranian media reported explosions in Hormuz over the weekend, with some analysts expecting strikes to become more frequent.