Strait of Hormuz disruptions worst global trade threat in 80 years, WTO chief warns

World Trade Organization director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has warned that Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent the worst threat to global trade in 80 years, with fertiliser and food supply chains under pressure. Speaking at the WTO's Public Forum in Geneva on 18 September 2026, Okonjo-Iweala stated that national reserves have temporarily shielded markets from the shocks, but prolonged blockages in the waterway will lead to higher agricultural costs.

Fertiliser shipments restricted through key waterway#

The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, restricting the flow of nitrogen fertilisers and sulphur, a component of phosphate fertilisers. The strait is the export route for about half the global supply of sulphur and the largest single conduit for nitrogen fertilisers. About one third of global seaborne fertilisers cannot reach fields, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations, with smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia most affected. Fertiliser prices are highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where rising costs and exhausted government subsidies in states like Malawi are deterring fertiliser use.

Trade growth outpaces projections despite geopolitical pressures#

Global trade in goods grew by 4.6 percent in 2026 despite geopolitical pressures, Okonjo-Iweala told Anadolu on the sidelines of the forum. The initial projection for overall goods trade growth was 1.9 percent for the entire year, but first-quarter growth of 3.2 percent outpaced expectations. She stated that 72 percent of all global commerce continued to operate under WTO rules. A significant portion of the momentum was driven by surging trade in artificial intelligence, supported by low- or zero-tariff agreements covering $3 trillion in global semiconductor and chip shipments.

Rerouting adds steep premiums to supply chains#

Maritime shippers have maintained trade volume by rerouting vessels via alternative routes, but these detours are adding steep premiums and calling into question the long-term stability of current supply chains, Okonjo-Iweala warned. The WTO's previous estimates showed that crude oil prices reaching $90 per barrel could drive down overall trade growth by 0.5 percentage points, and current crude oil prices have exceeded that threshold. Governments around the world are drafting contingency plans to protect their economies from future chokepoint failures, according to Anadolu.

Food crisis risk converges with Ukraine war and El Niño#

The Strait of Hormuz blockage is converging with Russia's war in Ukraine and a potential severe El Niño event to create food crisis risk, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. Global food prices are already almost 75 percent higher than their 1999 lows, and almost 2.2 billion people face food insecurity. A super El Niño will likely bring heat and drought to southern Africa and reduce food production in south and south-east Asia, potentially reducing wheat production by 3 percent globally in 2026-27. Russia's attacks on Ukraine's grain and port infrastructure cut the latter's exports by 75 percent, and Ukraine has struck Russian port facilities, taking over 90 percent of Russia's grain export capacity offline.