Saudi Arabia routes 20 million barrels through Hormuz as pipeline stays offline

Saudi Arabia routed approximately 20 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman in recent weeks, according to traders cited by Bloomberg. The volumes loaded through September and October, with buyers including Chinese state-owned and independent refiners alongside other East Asian importers. The transfers took place just outside the strait. The shift comes as the Kingdom's East-West Pipeline remains offline with no confirmed restart date.

Volume increase from August baseline#

The 20 million barrel figure represents a sharp increase from August, when Aramco moved at least 4 million barrels to China using the same transfer method. The comparison covers different time windows, but the direction of the increase is clear. The ship-to-ship model allows crude to be transferred between vessels outside the strait, reducing the need for tankers to transit through Hormuz itself. The August figure of 4 million barrels provides a baseline for measuring the recent scale-up in volumes.

Repair timeline estimates diverge across sources#

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the pipeline should resume operations within days, with Saudi Arabia taking steps to move more oil through Hormuz with US military assistance, Reuters reported. Citigroup analysts including Francesco Martoccia said operations should resume soon, with stockpiles at west coast terminals covering exports in the meantime, according to Asharq Business. People familiar with the repair work told Reuters that the timeline varies: one estimate put the damage repair at five to six weeks, while another indicated partial pumping could restart earlier. The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia aims for a partial restart within days, though complete repairs may require six to eight weeks, citing people familiar with the matter. Energy analyst Dalga Khatinoglu told Enterprise AM that the pipeline is more likely to remain offline until around early October.

Yanbu storage levels decline as exports continue#

Yanbu's stocks have fallen by more than 7 million barrels over the past two months to around 9 million barrels as of Monday, according to Kpler data cited by the Wall Street Journal. The storage decline leaves the Kingdom with limited export cover if the pipeline remains offline. The Journal reported that one Asian refiner received notification of a cargo delay, and multiple other refiners had not received updated loading schedules as of Monday. The US has resisted Saudi requests for direct military intervention beyond intelligence support, three sources told Reuters.