Murban crude premium widens to $1.70 over Brent as Hormuz transit drops

Murban crude premium over Brent futures widened to $1.70 a barrel on November 9, 2026, as physical Gulf crude climbed while futures fell on expectations of US-Iran de-escalation. Murban rose $3.28, or 3.42 percent, to $99.17 a barrel, while Brent futures settled at $97.49, down 83 cents or 0.84 percent, according to Gulf News citing industry tracking site Oilprice.com. The divergence reflects tightening supply as Strait of Hormuz transit remains severely constrained. IMF PortWatch recorded one vessel transit on November 1 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 vessels per day. A tanker was reported burning after a strike in the Strait of Hormuz on November 8, Gulf News reported. Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday after losing more than 16 percent on the week, its steepest weekly fall since 2020, while WTI fell nearly 13 percent.

Freight costs from US Gulf Coast to Asia climb to $30-$35 per barrel#

Shipping costs for crude from the US Gulf Coast to Asia have risen to $30 to $35 a barrel from about $5 a year earlier, Valero Energy vice president Randy Hawkins said on a post-earnings conference call reported by gCaptain. The increase has forced sellers to deepen discounts on heavy crude grades, widening the Western Canadian Select discount to West Texas Intermediate and lowering feedstock costs for US Gulf Coast refiners. Phillips 66 executive vice president Brian Mandell said every $1 widening in the WCS-WTI differential is worth about $140 million in gains for the company. Higher war-risk insurance premiums and longer voyages around the disrupted chokepoint have driven the cost increases. Valero chief operating officer Gary Simmons said higher freight rates give the company an advantage into typical export markets in Latin America, where it mainly competes with European barrels. For every extra dollar of freight, the diesel margin has grown by at least eight, said Delia He, an oil and tanker market analyst at Arrow Shipping. The disruption has particularly benefited US Gulf Coast refiners, which can buy discounted heavy crude produced closer to home, including from Canada and Venezuela, while Asian rivals face sharply higher freight and insurance costs to import similar grades through longer and riskier shipping routes, refining executives said.

US refiners secure time-charter vessels before conflict, insulating margins#

More than 70 percent of US Gulf Coast refining facilities are configured to process heavier crude. Phillips 66 said it had secured more than 40 time-charter vessels before the Iran conflict, covering about 40 percent of its asset-based shipping needs, while Valero, PBF, Marathon and Canada's Suncor also secured chartered fleets before the war began, insulating them from the surge in spot rates. Top US refiner Marathon Petroleum expects record Canadian heavy crude processing in the fourth quarter, while CEO Maryann Mannen said margins are expected to remain elevated through at least mid-2027. Ample heavy crude supplies from Canada and Venezuela, combined with elevated freight rates, have widened the WTI-WCS differential, lowering feedstock costs, US refining executives said. HF Sinclair said it will take advantage of the wider discounts in the near term and expects the differentials to stay wider than they have throughout the near term.

Guyana Uaru project adds 250,000 barrels per day capacity by December 2026#

Guyana was lifting 908,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of August 2026, making it South America's third-largest oil producer, with production on track to exceed one million barrels per day before the end of December 2026, according to Oilprice.com. The Errea Wittu floating production, storage and offloading vessel, which arrived in Guyana at the end of August 2026, is slated to come online at the $12.7 billion Uaru project before the end of this year, adding a further 250,000 barrels per day to existing petroleum output from the offshore Stabroek Block. ExxonMobil, the operator with a 45 percent working interest, along with partners Chevron and CNOOC, which control 30 percent and 25 percent respectively, has made over 35 high-quality oil discoveries in the Stabroek Block, endowing it with 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable oil and gas resources. The facility will have 10 drill centers with 44 production and injection wells targeting a resource containing more than 800 million barrels of oil. Production is on track to exceed one million barrels per day before the end of December 2026, just seven years after the country first began pumping oil in December 2019. ExxonMobil continues to conduct exploration and appraisal drilling across the Stabroek Block while advancing four additional projects beyond Uaru: Whiptail, Hammerhead, Longtail and Haimara, scheduled to start up between late 2026 and 2031.

Brent futures fall 16 percent on week as Trump signals de-escalation#

Brent futures fell at Monday's open after US President Trump said it was highly unlikely he would order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progress, even as both countries reported shipping hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf News reported. Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday after losing more than 16 percent on the week, its steepest weekly fall since 2020, while WTI fell nearly 13 percent. Trump acknowledged that the unpopular conflict, which has driven up oil and petrol prices, contributed to the Republican midterm defeat. Natural gas futures eased 0.20 percent to $2.992 on November 9. The sell-off reflects bets on US-Iran de-escalation after the election, but the conflict is not resolved.